Weekly Economic Review and Outlook: 3 August – 16 August
PART A: THE WEEK THAT WAS (3 – 9 August 2026)
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1. GLOBAL ECONOMY
In Europe, stronger PMI readings did not translate into stronger retail sales. In China, household demand remained soft and the official manufacturing PMI stayed in contraction territory.
Federal Reserve "regime change": Markets and economists are adjusting to the end of an era of highly predictable, hand-holding Fed guidance.
**Joint US–Japan FX intervention: ** Further details emerged on the coordinated intervention to support the yen, which US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed as being about broader regional currency stability across Asia, not just the yen alone.
**Trade and Geopolitics Energy markets stayed on edge around the Strait of Hormuz: ** a weekend attack on a vessel transiting the strait, and Iranian negotiating terms seen as unacceptable to Washington, kept headline risk to oil elevated even as prices eased on the week (Both Brent crude and WTI crude fell marginally).
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2. AFRICAN ECONOMY
**Inflation ** Median Sub-Saharan African inflation, which fell from 4.4% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025, is now projected by the World Bank to rise to 4.8% in 2026, largely on Middle East-driven energy and shipping cost spillovers.
Egypt — remains Africa's top FDI destination for a fourth consecutive year, at roughly $15.5 billion (UNCTAD World Investment Report 2026).
Trade and Capital Flows Africa –China bilateral trade surged 19.6% to $158.3 billion in H1 2026, boosted by China's zero-tariff access extended to all African nations from May 2026; Standard Bank, now the continent's designated renminbi-clearing bank across 19 countries, cleared US$1.2 billion (over 8 billion yuan) in its inaugural year of CIPS direct participation. On the US side, AGOA's extension to end-2026 restores preference margins but not full duty-free treatment, given overlapping Section 122/232/301 tariffs — a live policy risk for Nigerian, South African and Angolan exporters heading into the AGOA renewal debate later this year.
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3. NIGERIAN ECONOMY
**Foreign Exchange ** The naira traded in a narrow, relatively stable band at the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) through the week, moving from around ₦1,368/$1 on 3 August to about ₦1,362–1,368/$1 by 6–7 August. The parallel ("black") market continued to trade at a premium, moving from roughly ₦1,410–1,425/$1 early in the week to around ₦1,415–1,430/$1 by the weekend, keeping the official–parallel spread in the ₦45–₦62 range. The week's most significant capital-flow development was the National Economic Council's approval (Monday 3 August) of a $4.5 billion oil-backed refinancing arrangement with NNPC, secured against 78,750 barrels per day of crude output, intended to further bolster reserves and fund infrastructure spending — announced by the Vice President's office and reported by Bloomberg on 4 August.
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PART B: THE WEEK AHEAD (10 – 16 August 2026)
1. GLOBAL OUTLOOK
The dominant global data focus shifts to US inflation. Consensus expects headline CPI to edge down to 3.4% y/y in July (from 3.5% in June, +0.1% m/m), with core CPI at 2.5% (+0.2% m/m).
**Geopolitics ** — specifically the fragility of the US–Iran standoff around the Strait of Hormuz — remains the second key swing factor for energy prices and, by extension, global inflation expectations. Other data and events to watch: the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index; Eurozone industrial production, GDP, trade balance and employment change; French and German inflation; UK GDP, fiscal budget figures, trade balance, industrial production and the services index; Japanese trade balance, balance of payments and PPI inflation; Chinese balance of payments, CPI and PPI; Indian CPI, PPI and trade balance; Brazilian central bank minutes, inflation and retail sales, and Mexican industrial production. Central banks meeting during the week — the Reserve Bank of Australia, Norges Bank and the Central Bank of Peru — are all expected to hold rates steady. Corporate earnings from Applied Materials and Cisco, along with major retailers and industrials, round out the calendar.
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2. AFRICA OUTLOOK With Southern Africa's growth momentum soft and Sub-Saharan median inflation trending back up toward 4.8% for 2026, watch for:
- Continued momentum in the AGOA renewal conversation, given the programme's 31 December 2026 expiry and Washington's stated intent to attach reciprocal-tariff conditions to any longer-term extension — a live risk for Nigeria, South Africa and Angola, which together account for over 70% of AGOA-eligible export volume to the US.
- Follow-through on Africa–China trade momentum (zero-tariff access from May 2026) as a partial offset to tightening US trade terms.
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3. NIGERIA OUTLOOK
**Inflation: ** The NBS July 2026 CPI report is due around mid-August and will be the single most important domestic release of the period. Given June's marginal easing, base effects and persistent food-price pressure (crayfish, pepper, tomatoes, yam, cassava products), a broadly flat-to-marginally-lower headline print in the 15.5–16.0% range appears the more likely path, though upside risk remains from global energy-price pass-through if Strait of Hormuz tensions escalate.
Foreign exchange and reserves: With reserves at a 17-year high and the $4.5 billion NNPC facility now approved, expect continued relative naira stability at the NFEM window (broadly ₦1,360–1,370/$1), with the parallel-market premium likely to persist in the ₦45–₦65 range absent a fresh demand or confidence shock.
Growth: Markets will watch for any preliminary signals ahead of the official Q2 2026 GDP release (expected later in the month), with private nowcasts pointing toward the fastest second-quarter growth in five years (~4.5%), on the back of stronger oil output and resilient non-oil (services-led) activity.