The Macrostrat’s Weekly: Week In Review and Week Ahead

Part I — The Week Prior (27 July – 2 August 2026)

a. Nigeria

i. Monetary Policy & External Reserves External reserves, at $52.52 billion as of 17 July, but drifted lower through the week under review to $51.92 billion by 30 July, still equivalent to almost 1 year of import cover.

ii. Trade Policy The debate over the United States' new 12.5 per cent Section 301 tariff on Nigerian imports continued through the week.

iii. Capital Markets & Investment The Nigerian Exchange closed out July with a strong month but a softer final week. The All-Share Index slipped from 247,357.40 points at the close of trading on 24 July to 245,283.68 points by 31 July — a decline of roughly 0.8 per cent over the week.

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b. Africa i. Currencies Under Pressure South Africa's rand extended its post-SARB slide, weakening to around R16.54–R16.70 per dollar on 31 July — its lowest level since 19 May — after the Reserve Bank's surprise 4–2 vote to hold the repo rate at 7.0 per cent despite June CPI jumping to 5.0 per cent. Elsewhere, Ghana's cedi remains Africa's worst-performing currency of 2026, down 11.6 per cent year-to-date as of late July.

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c. World

i. Equities: A Korean Crash, a Historic Rebound, and a Hedge Fund Unwind The week's most dramatic story unfolded in Seoul. South Korea's Kospi, which had surged as much as 116 per cent from the start of the year to a late-June peak, fell roughly 28 per cent from that high before staging a record 17.9 per cent single-day surge on 31 July — its largest one-day gain in history — as foreign investors bought a net 7.22 trillion won ($5.0 billion) while retail investors sold a record 8.25 trillion won ($5.7 billion) into the rebound. The proximate trigger was news that Situational Awareness, an AI-focused hedge fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner that had grown from roughly $225 million to as much as $45 billion in assets on the back of concentrated, leveraged bets on chipmakers including SK Hynix.

ii. Currencies: A Historic Yen Intervention Japanese authorities spent more than $50 billion defending the yen this week, reportedly supported by a further $10 billion-plus of US intervention and unspecified Korean participation, pulling the currency back from a fresh multi-decade low of ¥164 per dollar to a close near ¥157. The move followed the Bank of Japan's decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.0 per cent. Markets initially tested that resolve by selling the yen further before the coordinated intervention forced a rethink.

iii. Growth & Inflation: A Two-Speed World Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9 per cent in July from 2.8 per cent in June as energy inflation jumped to 10.0 per cent from 8.5 per cent on the Middle East conflict — a print markets read as strengthening the case for a European Central Bank rate hike in September, after the ECB (like the Bank of England) held rates in July. China's official manufacturing PMI, meanwhile, fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3, missing consensus and marking its lowest reading since February, underscoring the continued export of Chinese deflationary pressure into a world already grappling with an uneven inflation picture.

iv. Oil & Geopolitics: A Weekend Reprieve Brent crude eased back to around $88–$90 per barrel by week's end, still up more than 20 per cent for July, after reports emerged over the weekend of planned, large-scale coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

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Part II — The Week Ahead (3–9 August 2026) a. Nigeria

i. Monday 3 August: the Stanbic IBTC/S&P Global Nigeria PMI for July is due, the first hard read on private-sector momentum since the composite PMI's return to expansion (50.1) in June.

ii. Continued industry and government response to the US 12.5 per cent tariff, with attention on whether the Ministry of Trade, NEPC or the organised private sector announce concrete diversification or engagement steps.

iii. External reserves and NUPRC oil-production updates, to confirm whether June's multi-year-high output (1.735 million bpd combined) held into July amid above-budget Brent prices.

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b. Africa.

i. Watch for any AfDB, World Bank or IMF commentary revising 2026 Africa growth or inflation forecasts to account for the Middle East-driven oil shock, which postdates the Bank's most recent Outlook.

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c. World

i. The Eurozone releases PPI inflation, retail sales, PMI data and the ECB's Economic Bulletin, all of which will feed into the case for a September hike. Germany reports retail sales, trade and PMI figures; France reports fiscal, trade and PMI data alongside industrial production. Japan releases household spending and PMI figures against the backdrop of this week's intervention and hawkish BoJ hold. China's trade, inflation and PMI data will show whether last week's manufacturing miss was a one-off or the start of a renewed slowdown. Brazil reports industrial production, trade and PMI data alongside a central bank policy meeting, while Mexico releases CPI inflation, leading indicators, PMI and consumer confidence data.

ii. The trajectory of the US–Iran negotiations announced over the weekend, and whether the proposed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz materialises, remains the dominant swing factor for oil, freight costs and global inflation expectations — with direct implications for Brent, Treasury yields, and emerging-market currencies including the naira.